Rising temperatures and air pollution threaten to slash rice yields by up to 75% in parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh by 2035, according to new research. Conversely, rice production in Gangetic Bengal is expected to remain stable, highlighting a shift in regional agricultural resilience due to climate change.

Rising temperatures and air pollution threaten to slash rice yields by up to 75% in parts of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh by 2035, according to new research. Conversely, rice production in Gangetic Bengal is expected to remain stable, highlighting a shift in regional agricultural resilience due to climate change. 

Key Findings from the Study:

Northern Region Impact: -

The study projects a significant decline in rice production in India's major breadbasket states, driven by high heat stress and pollution, which is noted to exceed earlier impact assessments.

Regional Contrast: -

While northern areas suffer, Gangetic West Bengal's, Odisha's, and neighboring regions' rice yields are expected to remain stable, potentially increasing the region's importance in future national rice production.

Causes: 

The reduction in yields is largely due to rising temperatures during the growing season, which affects plant growth and increases vulnerability to extreme weather events.

Adaptation Needs:-

 Scientists emphasize the urgent need for developing short-duration, heat-tolerant rice varieties to counter these severe climate-related impacts. 

   Rising heat and pollution threaten rice production in northern states ...

  Rising temperatures and air pollution could cut rice yields by up to 75 per cent in parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh by 2035, while yields in Gangetic

  The relative resilience of Bengal is likely rooted in lower pollution levels and less extreme temperature variation.

Climate Change and Agriculture in India  Foreword. Climate is the most important determinant of crop productivity, particularly in countries like India, where about 2/3rd of the cultivated area is rainfall.

Impact of climate change on agricultural production in India: 

  In India direct impacts of climate changes would be small on kharif' crops but kharif agriculture will become susceptible due to increased frequency of extreme  temperature

Black carbon and methane are major contributors to environmental degradation and public health concerns, making their reduction a priority. 

MJF Lion ER YK Sharma